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LatestWTI crude holds above $100 as Gulf supply routes stay shut

Where we stand

Our latest call on each market — tap one for the full outlook
WTI Bullish Daily · 14 Sep EURUSD Neutral Daily · 14 Sep XAUUSD Neutral Daily · 14 Sep GBPUSD Bearish Weekly · 13 Sep USDJPY Bearish Weekly · 13 Sep BTCUSDT Bearish Weekly · 12 Sep
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LatestDailyArticle · 3 min
WTI Bullish

WTI crude holds above $100 as Gulf supply routes stay shut

Oil rallied more than 9% last week to a four-month high near $103 after drone attacks shut Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, a key route around the Strait of Hormuz. Weekend talks on Hormuz shipping were postponed.

What's moving it

  • Saudi East-West pipeline still shut
  • Hormuz talks with Gulf states postponed
  • Energy costs already lifting US and UK inflation
Read the full outlook

Key levels

  • R2108.00
  • R1104.00
  • S1100.00
  • S296.50

Bull caseFurther disruption and a hold above $100 target $104, then $108.

Bear caseProgress on reopening routes and a close below $100 open $96.50.

EURUSD Neutral

EUR/USD holds 1.16 as the ECB and the Fed both tighten

The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.5% last Thursday, its second hike since the Iran conflict began. With the Fed expected to follow on Wednesday, both sides are tightening — which keeps EUR/USD pinned around 1.16 until the Fed’s projections land.

R1.1650S1.1540
Daily · Article · 3 min · 14 SepRead
XAUUSD Neutral

Gold stalls near $4,350 as the Fed weighs a hike

Gold is trading around $4,350, roughly 22% below January’s record of $5,589. A Fed hike on Wednesday would be a headwind, but record ETF holdings and the Middle East conflict keep buyers active on dips.

R4,400S4,290
Daily · Video · 3 min · 14 SepRead
GBPUSD Bearish

GBP/USD at 1.35 into UK CPI and the Bank of England

Cable is holding 1.3520 before a heavy UK week: August CPI on Wednesday is expected near 3.2%, and the Bank of England is expected to hold at 3.75% on Thursday. A Fed hike the evening before would tilt rate differentials toward the dollar.

R1.3600S1.3450
Weekly · Article · 3 min · 13 SepRead
USDJPY Bearish

USD/JPY slips toward 153 ahead of Friday’s BoJ decision

The yen has firmed from near 158 early this month to around 153.60, with markets pricing about an 80% chance the Bank of Japan hikes to 1.25% on Friday. While 155 caps rallies, the bias stays lower.

R155.00S153.00
Weekly · Video · 3 min · 13 SepRead
BTCUSDT Bearish

Bitcoin slips to $76,700 as rate-hike bets build

Bitcoin has fallen from above $81,000 on 4 September to around $76,700 as hotter US inflation and Fed hike expectations weigh on risk. Early-month ETF inflows were not enough to hold the $80,000 area.

R78,300S75,000
Weekly · Article · 4 min · 12 SepRead
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