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Gold stalls near $4,350 as the Fed weighs a hike

· XAUUSD · FXpips research desk

Gold is trading around $4,350, roughly 22% below January’s record of $5,589. A Fed hike on Wednesday would be a headwind, but record ETF holdings and the Middle East conflict keep buyers active on dips.

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What’s driving it

  • FOMC on Wednesday — markets price roughly 90% odds of a 25bp hike
  • US CPI rose to 3.4% y/y in August, with energy up 16.3%
  • Gold ETF holdings at a record after $18bn of August inflows

Key levels

Resistance

4,4004,510

Support

4,2904,200

Scenarios

Bullish caseIf the hike is delivered without hawkish projections and $4,290 holds, gold can return to $4,400, then $4,510.
Bearish caseA hike with a hawkish dot plot and a daily close below $4,290 exposes $4,200.

General market commentary for education, not personal advice. Levels can shift quickly around news.

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